Exploiting the dynamics of commodity futures curves - Audencia
Article Dans Une Revue Journal of Banking and Finance Année : 2023

Exploiting the dynamics of commodity futures curves

Robert J Bianchi
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1273789
John Hua Fan
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1273790
Joelle Miffre
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1026216
Tingxi Zhang
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1273791

Résumé

The Nelson-Siegel framework is employed to model the term structure of commodity futures prices. Exploiting the information embedded in the level, slope and curvature parameters, we develop novel investment strategies that assume short-term continuation of recent parallel, slope or butterfly movements of futures curves. Systematic strategies based on the change in the slope generate significant profits that are unrelated to previously documented risk factors and can survive reasonable transaction costs. Further analysis demonstrates that the profitability of the slope strategy increases with investor sentiment and is in part a compensation for the drawdowns incurred during economic slowdowns. The profitability can also be magnified through timing and persists under alternative specifications of the Nelson-Siegel model.
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Dates et versions

hal-04174414 , version 1 (31-07-2023)

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Robert J Bianchi, John Hua Fan, Joelle Miffre, Tingxi Zhang. Exploiting the dynamics of commodity futures curves. Journal of Banking and Finance, 2023, 154 (106965). ⟨hal-04174414⟩

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